Monthly Outlook

The weather will initially remain quite changeable across the UK with temperatures below the seasonal average. However, there is still a chance of summery conditions developing later in June.

On Wednesday and Thursday, after the low pressure influence slowly pulls away to the east and a weak high pressure temporarily provides drier and calmer conditions, new Atlantic weather systems will approach from the west, leading to wet and quite windy conditions across the UK later on.

Wednesday night will be quite chilly in places, especially in north-eastern parts of Scotland and England.

It could become very wet in places towards the weekend, with heavy and persistent rainfall as the area of low pressure is likely to be directly over parts of the UK. There could be heavy and thundery showers, with windy conditions at times.

Nevertheless, temperatures could slowly rise and reach around average by the end of next week, particularly in the south and south-east.

The third week of June should initially continue to be wetter than normal across much of the UK.

However, as the week progresses, conditions could become drier as an area of high pressure extends north-eastwards from the Azores, this likely to settle things down over southern parts of the UK, at least temporarily. As a result, a warmer trend could break through over the course of the week.

As the weather pattern is generally slow to develop due to the stalled conditions, the low pressure influence near the UK could persist for longer and bring generally changeable conditions with a brisk westerly or south-westerly flow on average. Warmer air masses are therefore more likely to affect much of the UK.

In the last week of June, there are signs that high pressure will build up near or over parts of the UK for a prolonged period.

This increases the likelihood that temperatures will continue to rise, and that drier and calmer conditions will set in for a while. There is even a chance of very warm conditions in southern England and Wales later in the week. However, the main risk remains that areas of low pressure from Iceland will cover large parts or at least the northern half of the UK with changeable conditions.

With areas of high pressure likely to remain close to the UK, there is a greater chance of warmer, calmer and drier weather in the first week of July. Given the variable weather forecast models, conditions could be more changeable, windier and cooler at times.

There is also still a risk that the high pressure could shift to the west or north-west of the UK and a generally cooler north-westerly flow could prevail for a while.

To summarise, the trend towards calmer and even summery conditions around and after the astronomical start of summer could continue, at least temporarily, although other solutions are also possible.

In the next forecast, we will see whether the trend towards a somewhat calmer and more summery July continues.